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A new report from Verto Analytics claims that a huge swath of the PC marketplace is eager to switch to a Mac PC (desktop or laptop), with 21 percent of laptop owners and 25 percent of desktop owners supposedly willing to brand the jump. At the same fourth dimension, Verto claims that 98 pct of current Mac owners are happy with their systems, with but 2 per centum planning to switch to a Microsoft-based PC over the same time frame.

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Windows PC user interest in Mac adoption, by income bracket.

Verto's survey also plant that the highest earners are the virtually likely to switch to Mac (which makes sense). Its research showed that the majority of its survey respondents in the bottom income brackets were people in their teens or early 20s, suggesting that parents would assist fund these purchases.

Verto doesn't give any concrete information on how they conducted their polling. But there's a fundamental problem with this claim: It's completely unsupported by historical trends or contempo sales information. Co-ordinate to IDC, Mac sales roughshod ix.8 percent in 2016 compared with 2015. Apple'due south market share recovered somewhat in Q1 2017, as shown below, but the worldwide figures don't show a huge surge in sales for Mac systems.

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IDC data Q1 2017

Verto'southward survey was of American users, who tend to be a bit Mac-friendlier than other regions. But a look at recent US market share doesn't support any prediction of a huge surge in Apple ownership, either. Us-specific information is sometimes harder to observe than worldwide shipment information, only IDC and Gartner accept both published data at different times. Outset, here's US-specific sales data for a number of PC OEMs during 2014 and 2015.

IDC charts Apple's market place share as growing modestly in 2015 compared with 2014, but remaining under 10 pct of the full market. Apple's profit share of the PC infinite is far larger, thank you to its refusal to ship the $400 to $600 PCs that frequently dominate sales at OEMs like Dell, HP, and Lenovo. Simply its historic market share has been in the 4 to 15 percent range over the final x years. It improved significantly once Apple adopted x86 processors and has bounced up and down based on refresh cycle timing and the overall contraction in PC market place shipments over the past five years.

Information from Gartner also shows a relatively stable market share for Apple over the last few years.

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ten-year Mac market share measurement by Gartner, via MacRumors.

Gartner'south figures are higher than what IDC measured, but they're still stable and show relatively constant marketplace share. I can hands believe that Apple could selection up a scrap of actress market share through the terminate of 2017 cheers to its recent product refreshes. Simply a 20-25 percent exodus of Windows PC users over to Apple wouldn't only be unprecedented — it would probable impale at least one major OEM. And it's not even articulate Apple could ramp production to run into increased need.

Consider the actual numbers in Gartner's chart. in Q1 2016, Apple tree shipped an estimated 1.66 meg computers, compared with 13.146 million for the entire market place. Permit'south be generous and assume that 1 pct of the marketplace is equanimous of Linux buyers who wouldn't switch to Windows or Mac in any upshot. The resulting market (minus Apple's share and our Linux carveout) is 11.365 million PCs in North America in Q1 2016.

If even xv percentage of the existing PC market suddenly switched its buying to Mac, Apple'southward full market place share would more than double. But contract manufacturing takes time, every bit does creating appropriate supply lines. That's even more true when, similar Apple, y'all tend to define your style with things like unibody aluminum chassis. Sure, whichever PC manufacturing visitor handles Dell or HP orders would actively want to start edifice machines for Apple, merely that doesn't mean they've got the chassis and other equipment they would need to do so.

Consideration isn't surprising, switching would be

The lesser line is this: There accept e'er been people who switched between Mac and PCs, either on a semi-regular basis or as a old bargain. Apple has at least doubled its market share since switching to x86 chips, thanks in no small role to its power to run Windows. The visitor holds high-profile press events and is often treated as a bellwether for the entire PC industry. Even Apple'sfailed products have often been trendsetters in retrospect; the Apple Newton was an early forerunner of PDAs, while the G4 Cube was unquestionably a small-form-factor system. If I was just in the PC market every few years, I'd undoubtedly at to the lowest degree check out Apple'south production lines when making my decision.

I'm not implying wrongdoing on Verto'due south part, only I don't believe their survey results. The idea that such a huge clamper of the PC marketplace could or would simply up and movement to Apple, or that Apple could fifty-fifty absorb the influx of customers inside such a short period of time, are both highly dubious assertions. Customers may talk virtually making these kinds of moves due to brand halos or favorable perception, but at that place'south no indication that PC consumers are going to leap for Apple tree en masse.